Dorward, F; Akintoye, A and Hardcastle, C (1997) Towards a composite cyclical leading indicator for private construction new orders. In: Stephenson, P (ed.) Proceedings of 13th Annual ARCOM Conference, 15-17 September 1997, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract
This paper undertakes through experimental analysis to identify leading indicators for UK commercial and industrial construction new orders. A leading indictor is best thought of as a variable whose cyclical pattern over time tends to precede the cyclical pattern of another variable by a reasonably constant time interval. The most suitable leading indictors are then used to form a composite indictor for construction new orders. The research involves examining a large number of macro - economic time series that, based on intuitive reasoning and published literature that would seem to follow a reasonably constant cyclical relationship with the 'reference' series. After testing for the strength and timing of the relationship between the indicators and the reference series a composite index for construction new orders is presented and its examined for its ability to chart turning points in the reference series.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | composite index; cycles; indictors; new orders |
| Index terms: | time series, testing, industrial construction, reasoning, composite |
| Subjects: | professional practice, materials science, data science, cognitive psychology, building construction |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Construction Materials |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCT |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here