Model selection criteria in building project price forecast formulation

Clients of the building industry expect to obtain high levels of quality from all decision makers involved with the delivery of their projects. High quality forecasts of the construction costs of potential buildings are central to the estimation of a scheme's value for money. The decisions that effect the quality levels of such forecasts involve the selection of appropriate models and the exercising of professional judgement, both in the formulation of the advice itself and in its transmission to the client. This paper addresses issues connected with the formulation of early stage building project price advice for clients. Initially, the paper reviews, identifies and classifies factors identified from both domain specific and general business literature that are thought to influence practitioner selection of building project price forecasting models. This analysis is used as a basis for the development of a preliminary conceptual model selection framework. The paper concludes by describing a research design that will be used to be collect data to support that the development of a decision support mechanism for building project price forecasting model selection.