Du, H; Han, Q; Sun, J and Wang, C C (2023) Adoptions of prefabrication in residential sector in China: Agent-based policy option exploration. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 30(4), pp. 1697-1725. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of different prefabricated construction (PC) policies using a case study in Wuhan, considering the local context. Design/methodology/approach: The effectiveness of PC policies is falling behind expectations. The main reason lies in an insufficient understanding of the policy impacts. An agent-based model was built by choosing the residential sector in a typical large city of Wuhan, China, as the study case. Different cost reduction scenarios were introduced for investigating the PC policy effectiveness. The proposed model and simulation approach can be used for other cities and generalized to the whole Chinese PC industry with the potential to include more local policies and corresponding data. Findings: Simulation results show that carbon emission reduction will be between 60,000 and 80,000 tons with policy incentives, nearly double that of the no policy intervention scenario. The target of 30% PC in all new buildings by 2026 in China is achievable with the subsidy policies of linear cost reduction, or cost reduction conforms to the learning curve. Practical implications: Simulation results of three kinds of policy show that subsidy policy optimization is necessary regarding reducing the level of subsidy needed. The carbon credit policy is not essential since it has little influence on PC development. Implementing the project procurement restriction policy is not recommended if the scale of development of PC is more important than achieving the development target. Originality/value: This study can help the government and developers make better policy and strategic decisions on PC development and boost the sustainability transition of the construction industry.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | agent-based modeling; carbon trading policy; policy optimization; prefabricated construction; subsidy policy |
| Index terms: | exploration, methodology, agent, China, project procurement, cost reduction, subsidy, carbon emission, case study, agent-based modelling, policy impact, effectiveness, construction industry, prefabrication, option |
| Subjects: | modelling and simulation, environmental resource management, economic analysis, contractual arrangements, policy studies, data collection methods, practitioner, climate science, decision analysis, building construction, industry analysis, performance management, economics, research methods, Geography |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Risk Management, Procurement, Construction Technology, Governance, Sustainability, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTE |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here