Sadeh, H; Mirarchi, C; Shahbodaghlou, F and Pavan, A (2023) Predicting the trends and cost impact of COVID-19 OSHA citations on US construction contractors using machine learning and simulation. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 30(8), pp. 3461-3479. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) of the U.S. government ensures that all health and safety regulations, protecting the workers, are enforced. OSHA officers conduct inspections and assess fines for non-compliance and regulatory violations. Literature discussion on the economic impact of OSHA inspections with COVID-19 related citations for the construction sector is lacking. This study aims to investigate the relationships between the number of COVID-19 cases, construction employment and OSHA citations and it further evaluates the total and monthly predicted cost impact of OSHA citations associated with COVID-19 violations. Design/methodology/approach: An application of multiple regression analysis, a supervised machine learning linear regression model, based on K-fold cross validation sampling and a probabilistic risk-based cost estimate Monte Carlo simulation were utilized to evaluate the data. The data were collected from numerous websites including OSHA, Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization. Findings: The results show that as the monthly construction employment increased, there was a decrease in OSHA citations. Conversely, the cost impact of OSHA citations had a positive relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases. In addition, the monthly cost impact of OSHA COVID-19 related citations along with the total cost impact of citations were predicted and analyzed. Originality/value: The application of the two models on cost analysis provides a thorough comparison of predicted and overall cost impact, which can assist the contractors to better understand the possible cost ramifications. Based on the findings, it is suggested that the contractors include contingency fees within their contracts, hire safety managers to implement specific safety protocols related to COVID-19 and request a safety action plan when qualifying their subcontractors to avoid potential fines and citations.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction industry; cost analysis; COVID-19; machine learning; Monte Carlo simulation; OSHA; risk management; risk-based cost estimate; safety |
| Index terms: | violation, COVID-19, occupational safety and health, employment, validation, cost estimate, Monte Carlo simulation, economic impact, manager, construction sector, health and safety, regression model, subcontractor, methodology, inspection, disease control, multiple regression analysis, compliance, construction industry, cost analysis, risk management, construction contractor, machine learning, sampling, regulation |
| Subjects: | professional development, risk assessment, political science, practitioner, management, artificial intelligence, quality assurance, data collection methods, modelling and simulation, health risk and incident analysis, health safety and environment, research methods, occupational health and safety management, statistical analysis, financial analysis, regulatory law, public and environmental health, industry analysis, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Cost Management, Digital Applications, Quality Management, Human Resources, Roles and Professions, Health and Safety, Legal Issues, Information Management, Governance, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here