Cheng, L and Cao, D (2024) Evolution model and quantitative assessment of risk network in housing construction accidents. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 31(1), pp. 227-246. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: Clarifying the risk evolution mechanism of housing construction for work-safety management is essential. Existing studies have inadequately discussed the risk-accumulation process in housing construction. Therefore, this study aimed to use the complex network theory and risk allocation mechanisms to explore the evolution of risk factors. Design/methodology/approach: The authors analysed a database of housing construction accidents in China from 2015 to 2020 to identify risk factors. Moreover, the causal relationship between risk factors was determined through a systematic analysis of the logical sequence of risk factors. A complex network was used to construct a risk network for housing construction accidents (RNHCA). Findings: The risk matrix method was used to define the factor risk threshold, and a risk value was assigned based on the correlation between risk factors. This contributes to the examination of the evolution mechanism of risk networks in the process of risk factor transmission. The case verification results show that the RNHCA quantitative assessment model can better evaluate the system risk status of housing construction accidents. Furthermore, this model can identify the key risk factors and risk chains with high risk in the evolution of the risk network. Research limitations/implications: Accident investigation reports need to be classified and processed to analyse the evolution law of risk networks under different scales of construction project, such as high-rise buildings, middle-rise buildings, and low-rise buildings. Practical implications: This study clarified the risk evolution process of complex systems in housing construction and provided a new method for analysing accidents. Originality/value: This study clarifies the risk value allocation of risk factors in the transmission process and reveals the process of risk factor evolution in housing construction. This study explains the individual risk factors that form a systemic risk through the transmission chain. Moreover, this paper clarified the transformation relationship between system risk and accidents. The paper also provided a new perspective for risk analysis.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | complex network; housing construction; risk allocation; risk evolution; sensitivity |
| Index terms: | accident investigation, residential construction, risk factor, risk allocation, complex system, transformation, database, construction project, methodology, evolution, risk analysis, safety management, high-rise building, China, matrix method |
| Subjects: | construction type, business, environmental science, prediction and forecasting, production management, Geography, financial risk, construction integration, research methods, environmental hazards, environmental health, systems engineering, occupational health and safety management, data management |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Construction Technology, Health and Safety, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Project Management, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here