Cutcu, I; Atay, G and Gerlikhan, S G (2024) How the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic affected housing sector? Empirical evidence from Turkey. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 31(8), pp. 3050-3068. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to analyze the relationship between the consequences of the pandemic and the housing sector with econometric tests that allow for structural breaks. Design/methodology/approach: Study data were collected weekly between March 9, 2020, and February 4, 2022, and analyzed for Turkey. In the model of the study, housing loans were used as a housing market indicator, and the number of new deaths and new cases were used as data related to the pandemic. The exchange rate, which affects the use of housing loans, was added to the model as a control variable. This study was analyzed to examine the relationship between the pandemic and the housing sector, time series analysis techniques that allow structural breaks were used. Findings: Based on the result of the analyses, it was concluded that there is a long-run relationship between the pandemic stages and housing markets along with structural breaks. As a result of the time-varying causality test developed to determine the causality relationship between the variables and its direction, a bidirectional causality relationship was identified between all variables at certain dates. Research limitations/implications: Study data were collected weekly between March 9, 2020, and February 4, 2022, and analyzed in the case of Turkey. Practical implications: Based on results of the study, it is recommended that policy makers and market actors take into account extraordinary situations such as pandemics and create a budget allocation that is always ready to use for this purpose. Originality/value: The empirical examination of the relationship between the pandemic and the housing sector in Turkey provides originality to this study in terms of its topic, sample, methodology, contribution to the literature and potential policy recommendations.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; housing loans; housing sector; time-varying causality |
| Index terms: | evidence, methodology, housing, COVID-19, econometric, markets, Turkey, time-series analysis, pandemic |
| Subjects: | research evaluation and metrics, research methods, health risk and incident analysis, Geography, economic analysis, construction type, evaluation and assessment methods |
| Topics: | Construction Technology, Business Strategy, Health and Safety, Geographical Context, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here