Kim, S; Makhmalbaf, A and Shahandashti, M (2024) Diagnosing and quantifying post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the architecture billings indices. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 31(2), pp. 681-695. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to understand the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the building construction demand from various angles at the national, regional, and sectoral levels. Despite the significant impact of COVID-19 on the building construction industry, a detailed quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand is still lacking. The current study aims to (1) establish a statistical approach to quantify the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand; (2) investigate the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the construction demand of different building services, regional markets, and building sectors using the historical time series of the architecture billings index (ABI); and (3) identify vulnerable market and sector and discuss the post-COVID-19 recovery strategies. Design/methodology/approach: The research methodology follows four steps: (1) collecting national, regional, and sectoral ABIs; (2) creating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models; (3) illustrating cumulative sum control charts to identify significant ABI deviations; and (4) quantifying the post-COVID-19 ABI fluctuations. Findings: The results show that all the ABIs experienced a statistically significant decrease after COVID-19. The project inquiries index reduced more but recovered faster than billings and design contracts indices. The midwest billings index decreased the most among the regional ABIs and the commercial/industrial billing index dropped the most among the sectoral ABIs. Originality/value: This study is unique in the way that it utilized the ABI data and the approach using SARIMA models and CUSUM control charts to assess the post-COVID-19 building construction demand represented by ABI fluctuations.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | architecture; construction; estimating; novel method |
| Index terms: | methodology, quantitative analysis, estimating, COVID-19, time series, strategy, building construction, construction demand, research methodology, markets, recovery, building service, deviation |
| Subjects: | health risk and incident analysis, management, research methods, market analysis, building construction, engineering systems, research design and methodology, data analysis and analytics, data science, economic analysis, financial and cost management, operations management |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Health and Safety, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Construction Technology |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here