Modelling levels of accuracy in design cost estimation

Blackwood, D J; Sarkar, S and Price, A D F (1998) Modelling levels of accuracy in design cost estimation. In: Hughes, W (ed.) Proceedings of 14th Annual ARCOM Conference, 9-11 September 1998, Reading, UK.

Abstract

The use of fee competition by construction industry clients has increased the need for design consultants to predict more accurately the cost of their professional services. There is evidence of concern among clients that fee reductions resulting from fee competition have been accompanied in many cases by a reduction in the level of services provided by consultants. However, there is little published work on design cost estimation methods and their accuracy. This paper describes a recently completed programme of research in design cost estimation practice in the United Kingdom. An overview of design cost estimation practice is presented and the development and operation of a model which simulates the design cost estimation process is described. The paper explains and presents the results of a data collection strategy that was adopted to provide input for the model and conclusions are drawn on the validity of the model when compared to the indicative levels of accuracy in design cost estimation suggested in the literature. Finally, recommendations are given for future research work that should lead to a usable cost estimation tool for design consultants.

Item Type: Conference Paper (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: design costs; design management; cost modelling; simulation
Index terms: level of service, construction industry, modelling, evidence, competition, professional service, design management, estimation, programme, validity, accuracy, design cost, strategy, United Kingdom, cost estimating
Subjects: analytical methods, financial and cost management, evaluation and assessment methods, organization, industry analysis, market analysis, project controls, Geography, design process, professional development, performance measurement, management, economics
Topics: Time Control, Organizational Design, Quality Management, Design Practice, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Cost Management
Descriptive scope: 4 PCTA

N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here