An 80-year projection of nZEB strategies in extreme climatic conditions of Iraq

Purpose: The Middle Eastern terrain is expected to encounter unprecedented climatic conditions before the turn of the next century (circa. 80 years), emanating from extreme heat waves that exceed the critical threshold of habitable conditions. This threatens to cause a significant challenge that is exacerbated by a gap between the supply and demand of affordable energy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of utilising nearly zero-energy buildings (nZEB) to improve the performance of residential buildings in Iraq and the Middle East. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses Iraq as a case-study because of the breadth of climatic conditions experienced across its wide-reaching territory and also because of the recent critical infrastructural challenges following the geo-political crisis. Three virtual buildings were simulated for Baghdad, Mosul and Basra cities to narrow the confines of the region to achieve nZEB under current and future climatic weather scenarios. Findings: The findings showed that in all three cases studies, the buildings located within the three climatic regions in Iraq could achieve both significant annual energy reductions as well as nZEB standards which could range from 41 per cent to 87 per cent for current climatic conditions and 40 per cent to 84 per cent by 2080. An analysis has also been carried out for the three case-study cities which revealed significant operational-cost savings achievable through nZEB buildings. Originality/value: There are currently limited studies that investigate such positive potential for nZEB strategies under the current and predicted future climatic scenarios in the Middle East.