Duff, A R; Emsley, M; Gregory, M; Lowe, D and Masterman, J (1998) Development of a model of total building procurement costs for construction clients. In: Hughes, W (ed.) Proceedings of 14th Annual ARCOM Conference, 9-11 September 1998, Reading, UK.
Abstract
There is a dearth of information on the comparative costs of projects carried out using the main procurement building systems. This paper reports the feasibility study of a research programme to produce a computer-based neural network cost model to show the effect on client costs of 'inter alia' using different procurement approaches. A literature search identified 39 cost-significant project variables. Data were collected from collaborating QS practices, resulting in 46 project data-sets with which to test various modelling approaches. Evaluation of the data and model objectives identified multiple regression and neural networks as potential model forms. Investigation and trials of both have shown that regression and neural networks can provide effective representation of the client costs model but neural networks, due to their greater ability in modelling interdependencies between input variables, modelling non-linear relationships, and handling incomplete data sets, will probably be the better choice with which to analyse the very much larger volume of data planned for the next phase of the research. The results have demonstrated that such a model can be developed, that data to support it can be obtained and, additionally, that the utility of the model may be significantly greater than had been envisaged at the start of the study.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost modelling; early stage estimating; neural networks; procurement |
| Index terms: | project data, construction client, feasibility study, estimating, programme, neural network, building procurement, building system, cost model, multiple-regression, investigation, modelling |
| Subjects: | project controls, data collection methods, contractual arrangements, engineering systems, statistical analysis, practitioner, artificial intelligence, analytical methods, financial and cost management, design stages |
| Topics: | Procurement, Engineering Principles, Cost Management, Time Control, Design Practice, Roles and Professions, Research Practice, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here