Simpeh, E K; Ndihokubwayo, R; Love, P E D and Thwala, W D (2015) A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects. International Journal of Construction Management, 15(2), pp. 109-116. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | contract value; generalized pareto distribution; South Africa; total rework costs |
| Index terms: | construction project, South Africa, dataset, rework, construction professional, risk assessment, cost overrun, statistical method, construction work, probability distribution |
| Subjects: | Geography, production management, data management, professional development, financial risk, statistical analysis, operations management, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Project Management, Digital Applications, Cost Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Geographical Context |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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