Pareek, P; Han, S and Misra, S (2016) Application of Bayesian updating for real-time schedule estimation in a concreting operation. International Journal of Construction Management, 16(1), pp. 54-66. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Ready-Mixed Concrete (RMC) delivery schedules should be carefully planned due to the limited time span between mixing and placing. The scheduling of RMC supply is challenging to both contractors and plant managers because of multiple operational issues such as traffic conditions and unloading delays. Simulation has been applied to address this challenge; however, the unique and complex nature of construction environments raises a validity issue in the use of previous datasets as input for the simulation of a new operation. Based on this recognition, the idea of using real-time data has been proposed to address the input data validity issue and to enhance the predictability of the simulation model. One important concern that has not yet been fully addressed regarding this issue is the amount of data collection required to yield a valid sample such that the output is sufficiently reliable. To answer this question, this paper uses a Bayesian updating technique with data collected from a concreting operation in a high-rise building project in Abu Dhabi. Through the case study it is concluded that the Bayesian forecasting technique has great potential for providing a better statistical representation of operational data and improving the predictability of the simulation model.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian updating technique; ready-mixed concrete; real-time simulation; schedule estimation |
| Index terms: | scheduling, real-time data, forecasting, concreting, manager, estimation, placing, high-rise building, case study, dataset, validity |
| Subjects: | building construction, data collection methods, construction type, financial and cost management, concrete and cementitious materials, prediction and forecasting, operations research, practitioner, data management, evaluation and assessment methods |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Research Practice, Construction Technology, Digital Applications, Cost Management, Time Control, Engineering Principles, Construction Materials |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here