García de Soto, B; Adey, B T and Fernando, D (2017) A hybrid methodology to estimate construction material quantities at an early project phase. International Journal of Construction Management, 17(3), pp. 165-196. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Preliminary project cost estimates are the first serious estimates made on a project. They play an important role during the decision-making process, and are the benchmark with which future estimates are expected to agree. This paper concentrates on the estimation of construction material quantities (CMQs) and presents a methodology to accurately estimate them during an early project phase. We make use of existing data and utilize regression analysis, neural networks and case-based reasoning to provide accurate results. It encompasses data collection, model development and evaluation, and the integration of different techniques. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by estimating CMQs of relevant structures. The accuracy of the methodology is investigated and compared with three state-of-practice approaches. The results obtained show a significant improvement over the state of the practice, and would improve the accuracy of preliminary project costs estimates. Through partial automation, it would likely reduce the time required to make estimates.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | backward elimination; case-based reasoning; construction material quantities; hybrid estimation models; neural networks; preliminary estimates; resource estimates |
| Index terms: | neural network, accuracy, project cost, case-based reasoning, model development, estimating, integration, methodology, decision-making process, estimation, automation, estimate, regression analysis, construction material |
| Subjects: | building materials, analytical methods, financial and cost management, artificial intelligence, research methods, economics, professional development, automation and robotics, cognitive psychology, decision analysis, organizational analysis, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Organizational Design, Digital Applications, Risk Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here