Rezakhani, P (2022) Hybrid fuzzy-Bayesian decision support tool for dynamic project scheduling and control under uncertainty. International Journal of Construction Management, 22(15), pp. 2864-2876. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Construction projects are complex and highly uncertain due to their special characteristics. Considering the incapability of current project scheduling methods in addressing the associated uncertainty, there is an emerging need for a dynamic scheduling and monitoring tool during project implementation. This paper addresses this need by proposing a dynamic decision support tool which employs fuzzy set theory to assess the combinatory effect of multiple risk factors on activities duration and Bayesian network to control and predict productivity under uncertainty. Advantages of proposed decision support tool comparing to existing approaches are: (1) calculating the fuzzy weighted average through an exact analytical solution which avoids creating incorrect fuzzy membership functions; (2) employing Type-2 interval-valued fuzzy numbers to model the uncertainty in expert evaluations, and (3) utilizing the advantages of Bayesian network in updating prior probability distributions of duration and predict productivity with actual activity data. Proposed model contributes to knowledge that could help minimize the schedule overrun and improve overall project performance. To elaborate the methodology, modelling and updating procedures of a group of activities in a simulated bridge project is presented as a case study.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian network; decision support tool; fuzzy set theory; project control; project scheduling; risk assessment |
| Index terms: | productivity, fuzzy set theory, schedule overrun, bayesian network, probability distribution, case study, implementation, modelling, duration, bridge project, project control, risk assessment, monitoring, project performance, risk factor, decision support, project scheduling, evaluation, scheduling, construction project, methodology |
| Subjects: | production management, project management theory and practice, financial risk, management, research methods, decision-making and optimization, infrastructure and transport systems, environmental hazards, statistical analysis, project controls, probabilistic model, decision analysis, control systems, data collection methods, contractual arrangements, data analysis and analytics, analytical methods, operations research |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Sustainability, Procurement, Risk Management, Digital Applications, Site Management, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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