Sarkar, D and Singh, M (2022) Risk analysis by integrated fuzzy expected value method and fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis for an elevated metro rail project of ahmedabad, India. International Journal of Construction Management, 22(10), pp. 1818-1829. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Risk identification and analysis for complex mega infrastructure projects has become an integral part of the present day project management process. This paper aims to develop an integrated Fuzzy Expected Value Method (FEVM) and Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FFMEA) method for a complex infrastructure project such as the construction of an elevated corridor for metro rail in Ahmedabad, India. The design and methodology adopted in this research work was a primary data survey, where the major risky activities of an elevated metro rail infrastructure project were identified through interactions with experts, questionnaire surveys, and personal experience. The identified risks were analyzed for likelihood, impact, severity, detection, occurrence and risk priority numbers. Further computations of fuzzy risk severity (FRS), fuzzy risk priority score (FRPS), and risk rankings were carried out through the new application of integrated fuzzy EVM and fuzzy FMEA methods. It has been found that land acquisition, feasibility, tendering, segment erection, segment casting, obligatory span, construction planning, launching girder, road widening, piles and piers activities were highly risky and had very high fuzzy risk severity and FRPS values (0.605–0.775). Risk mitigation measures were proposed for all critical activities of the elevated metro project in Ahmedabad.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | fuzzy expected value method; fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis; fuzzy risk priority score; fuzzy risk severity; risk detectability |
| Index terms: | computation, expected value, questionnaire, methodology, land acquisition, railway construction, risk mitigation, risk analysis, girder, risk identification, survey, project management process, construction planning, interaction, India, infrastructure project, failure mode |
| Subjects: | computational methods, data collection methods, reliability engineering, real estate economics, construction planning, civil engineering, research methods, structural engineering, financial risk, project management theory and practice, Geography, statistical analysis, behavioral psychology, environmental hazards, infrastructure and transport systems |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Project Management, Geographical Context, Cost Management, Site Management, Digital Applications, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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