Gashaw, T and Jilcha, K (2023) Design risk modeling and analysis for railway construction projects. International Journal of Construction Management, 23(14), pp. 2488-2498. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
A systematic and comprehensive risk assessment is essential for the success of railway construction projects. Even though numerous studies have been conducted on railway construction project risk assessment, few attempts have been made to evaluate the overall dynamics, interrelationships, uncertainty, and impact of risks on project objectives. To address these limitations, this study developed a risk analysis model to evaluate the impact of design-related risks on delays and cost overruns of the Addis-Djibouti railway construction project. The model was developed using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) and system dynamics (SD) approaches. The results of the study revealed that scope change and design changes were the predominant design risks that have a higher impact on delays and cost overruns. The proposed model can be used as a project risk analysis tool for other construction projects to help managers identify significant risks and analyze dynamic effects on project objectives.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | design risk analysis model; fuzzy synthetic evaluation; railway construction project; risk analysis; system dynamic |
| Index terms: | fuzzy synthetic evaluation, scope change, manager, design change, design risk, construction project, system dynamics, railway construction, risk analysis, Djibouti, cost overrun, risk assessment, project risk analysis, dynamics, modelling |
| Subjects: | financial and cost management, analytical methods, contractual arrangements, scope management, practitioner, computing systems, environmental hazards, systems engineering, decision-making and optimization, financial risk, production management, Geography, civil engineering |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Project Management, Research Practice, Roles and Professions, Sustainability, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here