Al-Gahtani, K; Alsugair, A; Alsanabani, N; Alabduljabbar, A and Almutairi, B (2024) Forecasting delay-time model for Saudi construction projects using DEMATEL–sd technique. International Journal of Construction Management, 24(11), pp. 1225-1239. ISSN 1562-3599
Abstract
Construction delays are common in the construction industry in Saudi Arabia. This study aims to develop a simulation forecasting model for the delay time in Saudi projects by considering ten previously identified factors. This study employs a systematic, integrated approach of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology and system dynamics (SD) to reflect the ten factors that impact project delay. The DEMATEL technique is used in this study to solve the difficulty of systematically developing a causal loop diagram within the SD modelling process. The developed SD model is tested for consistency and extreme conditions. It is then validated and applied using three case studies (an academic building, administrative building, and infrastructure project) in Saudi Arabia by comparing the actual and fitted progress curves of each case study. The results show that the proposed model can be a respectable aid to project managers in forecasting Saudi projects wherein the actual monthly progress follows an S-curve. In this regard, three satisfaction conditions are introduced to check the project progress in the S-curves. In addition, this study provides a systematic approach combining the DEMATEL and SD techniques, which can simplify the SD modelling process in the future. Furthermore, the study methodology can be repeated in other countries.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | delay time; DEMATEL; earned value management; forecast; project production; S-curve; system dynamics |
| Index terms: | project delay, decision-making, methodology, construction delay, system dynamics, construction project, earned value management, laboratory, integrated approach, construction industry, modelling, infrastructure project, s-curve, case study, project manager, Saudi Arabia, forecasting, satisfaction |
| Subjects: | economics, research methods, Geography, production management, research management, decision analysis, project controls, industry analysis, infrastructure and transport systems, profession, data collection methods, control systems, computing systems, prediction and forecasting, project delivery, analytical methods, contractual arrangements |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Time Control, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Roles and Professions, Risk Management, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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