Hosseini Sabzevari, S A; Mehdipour, H and Aslani, F (2024) An assessment of flash flood susceptibility in Golestan province, Iran, using multiple computational approaches. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 15(3), pp. 341-356. ISSN 1759-5916
Abstract
Purpose: Golestan province in the northern part of Iran has been affected by devastating floods. There has been a significant change in the pattern of rainfall in Golestan province based on an analysis of the seven heaviest rainfall events in recent decades. Climate change appears to be a significant contributing factor to destructive floods. Thus, this paper aims to assess the susceptibility of this area to flash floods in case of heavy downpours. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses a variety of computational approaches. Following the collection of data, spatial analyses have been conducted and validated. The layers of information are then weighted, and a final risk map is created. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, geographic information system and frequency ratio have been used for data analysis. In the final step, a flood risk map is prepared and discussed. Findings: Due to the complex interaction between thermal fluctuations and precipitation, the situation in the area is further complicated by climate change and the variations in its patterns and intensities. According to the study results, coastal areas of the Caspian Sea, the Gorganrood Basin and the southern regions of the province are predicted to experience flash floods in the future. The research criteria are generalizable and can be used for decision-making in areas exposed to flash flood risk. Originality/value: The unique feature of this paper is that it evaluates flash flood risks and predicts flood-prone areas in the northern part of Iran. Furthermore, some interventions (e.g. remapping land use and urban zoning) are provided based on the socioeconomic characteristics of the region to reduce flood risk. Based on the generated risk map, a practical suggestion would be to install and operate an integrated rapid flood warning system in high-risk zones.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | climate change; flash flood; Golestan province; hybrid computational approach; spatial analysis |
| Index terms: | flash flood, analytical hierarchy process, geographic information system, interaction, land use, data analysis, rainfall, climate change, precipitation, zoning, coastal areas, decision-making, methodology, variation |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, behavioral psychology, decision-making and optimization, decision analysis, geographical techniques and analysis, contractual condition, research methods, physical geography and landforms, data analysis and analytics, real estate economics, urban planning, climate science |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Governance, Risk Management, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Contract Administration, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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