Asiedu, R O and Gyadu-Asiedu, W (2020) Assessing the predictability of construction time overruns using multiple linear regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 18(3), pp. 583-600. ISSN 1726-0531
Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to focus on developing a baseline model for time overrun. Design/methodology/approach: Information on 321 completed construction projects used to assess the predictive performance of two statistical techniques, namely, multiple regression and the Bayesian approach. Findings: The eventual results from the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model were observed to improve the predictive ability of the model compared with multiple linear regression. Besides the unique nuances peculiar with projects executed, the scope factors initial duration, gross floor area and number of storeys have been observed to be stable predictors of time overrun. Originality/value: This current model contributes to improving the reliability of predicting time overruns.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian approach; building; estimate; Markov chain Monte Carlo; model; multiple regression; time overruns |
| Index terms: | methodology, multiple-regression, duration, gross floor area, time overrun, construction project, estimate, overrun, Markov chain, construction time |
| Subjects: | mathematical modelling, production management, research methods, financial and cost management, building performance, statistical analysis, project controls |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Time Control, Research Practice, Project Management, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here