Dawood, N N; Yasuhara, T; Usuda, Y; Matsuda, C and Sawada, A (2001) Analysis of cost escalation and risk assessment of infrastructure projects: An application in Japanese civil engineering projects. In: Akintoye, A (ed.) Proceedings of 17th Annual ARCOM Conference, 5-7 September 2001, Salford, UK.
Abstract
Cost escalation of construction projects can be defined as the departure of final project costs (after construction) from the initial budget estimates. This can be caused by a number of factors ranging from design changes to high cost of materials, machinery and labour (i.e. more than initially anticipated). As cost escalates, all budgetary and fiscal plans can be thrown in to chaos, causing the construction market to suffer for the lack of predictability. There is an increasing interest by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation to establish accurate costs estimates and risk assessment for construction (in particular infrastructure) projects to reduce cost escalation at all stages of the construction process. Current practices in the industry suggest that there is a lack of structured methodologies to assess risk and cost escalation of construction projects. In this context, the objective of this research project is to identify cost escalation drivers through the analysis of previous projects and develop a methodology for assessing risk factors and improve cost estimates. A total of sixteen historical case studies (construction projects of bridges in Japan) has been collected and analysed. Several investigation methodologies have been used in this papers, these were: literature review, analysis of historical case studies, Delphi methods for judgmental analysis, interviews and brain storming sessions with project mangers.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | case study; cost escalation; civil engineering; Japan; risk management |
| Index terms: | literature review, design change, Japan, project cost, interview, Delphi method, case study, land, infrastructure project, cost escalation, cost estimate, estimate, construction market, construction project, risk assessment, methodology, construction process, investigation, risk management, risk factor |
| Subjects: | data analysis and analytics, contractual arrangements, financial and cost management, real estate economics, risk assessment, data collection methods, infrastructure and transport systems, environmental hazards, market analysis, building construction, Geography, production management, financial risk, economics, research methods |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Site Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles, Cost Management, Procurement, Sustainability, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here