Osama, M; Sherif, A and Badawy, M (2023) Risk analysis of construction of administration projects using Bayesian networks. Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 21(1), pp. 281-298. ISSN 1726-0531
Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to enlighten the importance of the risk management process which is considered as a major procedure to effectively handle the potential inherent risks in the construction industry. However, most traditional risk analysis techniques are based on theories that deal with each risk factor as an independent, which does not take into consideration the causal relationships between risk factors. Design/methodology/approach: This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using Bayesian belief networks (BBN). Through a review of the literature, 27 risk factors were identified and categorized as the most common risk factors in the construction industry. A structured questionnaire was performed to estimate the probability and severity of these risks. Through site visits and interviews with experts in the construction field, 200 valid questionnaires were collected. A risk analysis model was developed using BBNs, then the applicability of this model was verified using a case study in Egypt. Findings: However, the outcome showed that critical risks that manipulate administrative construction projects in Egypt were corruption and bribery, contractor financial difficulties, force majeure, damage to the structure and defective material installation. Practical implications: The proposed study presents the possibilities available to the project parties to obtain a better forecast of the project objectives, including the project duration, total project cost and the target quality by examining the causal relationships between project risks and project objectives. Originality/value: This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using BBNs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | administrative projects; Bayesian belief networks; project objectives; project risk management |
| Index terms: | estimate, construction industry, duration, Egypt, risk factor, risk management, bayesian network, project risk management, life cycle, case study, force majeure, risk analysis, corruption, questionnaire, methodology, construction project, project cost, bayesian belief network, project party, interview |
| Subjects: | economics, research methods, financial risk, Geography, production management, sociology, probabilistic model, project controls, environmental hazards, industry analysis, professional ethics, risk assessment, data collection methods, value management, mitigation, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Time Control, Contract Administration, Legal Issues, Digital Applications, Stakeholder Management, Risk Management, Sustainability, Cost Management, Project Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here