Herbsman, Z (1983) Long-range forecasting highway construction costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 109(4), pp. 423-434. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
In the process of decision making for design and execution of highway construction projects, long-range cost forecasting is one of the most significant and complicated problems. This paper describes the development of a model that enables the user to make long-range cost projections, taking into consideration general characteristics of the highway construction industry, as well as pertinent local conditions. The model presented uses conventional statistical methods to represent the main categories of typical jobs in the highway construction industry. From these categories, a composite model is created by assigning different weights to the input elements costs and then choosing a series of indicators to predict price trends for each separate element of the composite model. Use of this model reveals that bid volume in a certain area is a factor that has significant influence upon cost forecasts. This paper is accompanied by a case study based on actual data from highway construction projects performed for the Florida Department of Transportation in the years 1968–1981.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | statistical method, highway construction, case study, composite, cost forecasting, forecasting, decision-making |
| Subjects: | decision analysis, statistical analysis, civil engineering, economics, prediction and forecasting, data collection methods, materials science |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Cost Management, Construction Materials, Engineering Principles, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here