Ahuja, H N and Nandakumar, V (1985) Simulation model to forecast project completion time. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 111(4), pp. 325-342. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Project cost is most sensitive to its schedule. The construction project environment comprising dynamic, uncertain, but predictable, variables such as weather, space congestion, workmen absenteeism, etc., is changing continuously, affecting activity durations. The reliability of project duration forecast can be enhanced by an explicit analysis to determine the variation in activity durations caused by the dynamic variables. A computer model is used to simulate the expected occurrence of the uncertainty variables. From the information that is collected normally for a progress update of the tactical plan and by simulating the project environment, the combined impact of the uncertainty variables is predicted for each progress period. By incorporating the combined impact in the duration estimates of each activity, the new activity duration distribution is generated. From these activity duration distributions, the probability of achieving the original project completion time and of completing the project at any other time is computed.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | completion time, duration, construction project, project cost, variation, estimate, absenteeism, weather |
| Subjects: | project controls, economics, contractual condition, management, air quality, production management, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Project Management, Human Resources, Cost Management, Contract Administration, Time Control, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here