Ioannou, P G (1987) Geologic prediction model for tunneling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 113(4), pp. 569-590. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Geologic uncertainty in underground construction often leads to design and construction conservatism and thus to inflated costs. This paper presents a general model for the probabilistic prediction of tunnel geology as a basis for developing more effective tunnel design and construction decision support systems. The geologic conditions along the tunnel alignment are modeled by a set of geologic parameters (e.g., rock type, joint density, degree of weathering, etc.), each following a continuous-space, discrete-state Markov process. The state probabilities for each geologic parameter are initially based on general geologic information and are later updated to reflect the outcomes and reliability of the location-specific, nondeterministic observations provided by exploration programs. The resulting posterior geologic parameter profiles are aggregated into a single probabilistic ground class profile that can be used for determining optimal tunnel design and construction strategies. The model is illustrated by an example application.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | decision support, tunnel, strategy, prediction model, exploration, program, density, design and construction, underground construction |
| Subjects: | environmental resource management, contractual arrangements, analytical methods, prediction and forecasting, geotechnical engineering, decision analysis, infrastructure and transport systems, management, software systems |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Urban Studies, Risk Management, Procurement, Sustainability, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here