Williams, T P (1994) Predicting changes in construction cost indexes using neural networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 120(2), pp. 306-320. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Construction cost indexes provide a comparison of cost changes from period to period for a fixed quantity of goods or services. Back-propagation neural-network models have been developed to predict the change in the ENR construction cost index for one month and six months ahead. A training set of macroeconomic data was developed for the period from 1967 to 1991. The neural-network models use inputs including recent trends in the index, the prime lending rate, housing starts, and the month of the year. Output from the neural-network models was compared with predictions made by exponential smoothing and simple linear regression. The prediction produced by the neural network gave a greater error than either exponential smoothing or linear regression. It can be concluded that the movement of the cost indexes is a complex problem that cannot be predicted accurately by a back-propagation neural-network model.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | construction cost index, housing, movement, neural network, propagation, cost index, smoothing |
| Subjects: | construction type, engineering process, health behaviours and lifestyles, cost indicators, artificial intelligence, data science, economic analysis |
| Topics: | Construction Technology, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Design Practice, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here