Modeling project performance for decision making

This paper presents a performance modeling methodology for application to individual projects. The model combines experience captured from experts with assessments from the project team. The methodology consists of a conceptual, qualitative-model structure and a mathematical-model structure. The conceptual-model structure, called the general performance model (GPM), is a simplified model of the variables and interaction that influence project performance. The mathematical model uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference to capture the uncertainties and interactions among project variables. The GPM allows management to test different combinations of project-execution options and predict expected cost, schedule, and other performance impacts. The methodology provides a systematic and structured process for a project-team discussion on relevant planning issues in a project. Researchers should benefit from the exploratory and analytical capabilities of the methodology, as well as the flexible knowledge structure to update models and data. Computer implementation is also attractive as a means to disseminating research results.