Everett, J G and Farghal, S H (1997) Data representation for predicting performance with learning curves. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 123(1), pp. 46-52. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Mathematical learning curve models can be used to predict the time or cost required to perform future cycles in a repetitive construction activity. The analyst has a choice of several methods of representing the data, usually trading off between response and stability of forecasting information. Traditionally, learning curve data has been evaluated using either unit data or cumulative-average data. This paper evaluates those two methods and two other techniques: the moving average and the exponentially weighted average. For the 54 construction activities evaluated, unit data gives the most accurate prediction of the time or cost to complete the remaining cycles of the activity. Cumulative-average data gives the least accurate prediction. Compared to unit data, the exponentially weighted average can predict future performance with only a slight loss of accuracy early in the activity, but equal accuracy later in the activity. The exponentially weighted average may offer an improved combination of stability and response, depending on the smoothing parameter chosen.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | smoothing, accuracy, forecasting, repetitive construction, construction activity, stability |
| Subjects: | prediction and forecasting, construction operations, professional development, building construction, structural engineering, data science |
| Topics: | Information Management, Site Management, Construction Technology, Engineering Principles, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here