Diekmann, J E and Featherman, W D (1998) Assessing cost uncertainty: Lessons from environmental restoration projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(6), pp. 445-451. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The uncertain physical and regulatory conditions prevalent in the field of environmental restoration often lead to considerable project cost growth. To date, the ability of project personnel to predict the magnitude of such growth has been limited. A formal approach to identifying, classifying, and incorporating uncertainty into standard cost estimating procedures is needed to quantify the risk of large-scale cost growth prior to project commencement. Because the elicitation of expert knowledge is critical to the risk analysis process, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of several approaches to eliciting and encoding probabilistic judgments. In essence we ask, "How should one frame questions concerning uncertain judgments in order to get the best answers?" In addition, this paper examines using both influence diagramming and Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with environmental restoration projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | project cost, encoding, cost estimating, personnel, restoration, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, judgment, effectiveness, environmental restoration project |
| Subjects: | financial and cost management, data science, modelling and simulation, dispute resolution, environmental hazards, land management, performance management, economics, renovation and retrofit, management |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Cost Management, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Legal Issues, Digital Applications, Human Resources, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here