Mahamid, I (2011) Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques. Construction Economics and Building, 11(4), pp. 87-101. ISSN 2204-9029
Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past research which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost estimating; early estimate; regression; road construction |
| Index terms: | regression model, accuracy, estimate, cost estimate, Palestine, multiple-regression, road construction, cost estimating |
| Subjects: | civil engineering, Geography, statistical analysis, financial and cost management, professional development |
| Topics: | Information Management, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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