Kaka, A P and Fortune, C (2002) Net cash flow models: Towards the black box approach. In: Greenwood, D (ed.) Proceedings of 18th Annual ARCOM Conference, 2-4 September 2002, Northumbria, UK.
Abstract
Research in construction financial management has frequently centred on the development, usage and accuracy assessment of cash-flow forecasting tools and techniques. The conventional approach simulates S-curves of anticipated flows of cash in and out of the contracting organization using step calculation. However, such approaches take no cognisance of the anticipated construction programme or detailed data contained in tender documentation and other soft issues such the effects of payment delays. This research addresses this matter by making an assessment of the feasibility of developing a black box approach that utilizes simple multi-linear regression modelling. Data were simulated and examined in a pilot study using selected variables. The results of the research were inconclusive and it is suggested that further work in this area should focus non-linear regression models and ANNs
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cash-flow forecasting; simulation |
| Index terms: | multi-linear regression, s-curve, modelling, contracting organization, forecasting, cash flow, financial management, regression model, accuracy, programme, documentation |
| Subjects: | analytical methods, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, practitioner, project controls, statistical analysis, economics, financial management, professional development |
| Topics: | Time Control, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Roles and Professions |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here