Mulholland, B and Christian, J (1999) Risk assessment in construction schedules. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 125(1), pp. 8-15. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in circumstances of high uncertainty and risk, which are compounded by demanding time constraints. This paper describes a systematic way to consider and quantify uncertainty in construction schedules. The system incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, project-specific information, decision analysis techniques, and a mathematical model to estimate the amount of risk in a construction schedule at the initiation of a project. The model provides the means for sensitivity analyses for different outcomes wherein the effect of critical and significant risk factors can be evaluated. The paper focuses on lessons learned from past projects and describes a risk assessment process involving typical inputs and expected outputs. The paper also briefly reviews the information technology of HyperCard and Excel, which were used to develop the system.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | risk assessment, risk factor, estimate, decision analysis, construction project, lessons learned, information technology, mathematical model, sensitivity analysis |
| Subjects: | decision analysis, environmental hazards, production management, professional development, financial risk, financial and cost management, mathematical modelling, computing systems |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Risk Management, Information Management, Project Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here