Chua, D K H; Li, D Z and Chan, W T (2001) Case-based reasoning approach in bid decision making. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(1), pp. 35-45. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Since contractors' bidding behaviors are affected by numerous factors related both to the specific features of the project and dynamically changed situations, bidding decision problems are highly unstructured. No clear rules can be found in delivering a bidding decision. In this problem domain, decisions are commonly made based upon intuition and past experience. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a subbranch of artificial intelligence. It solves new problems by matching against similar problems that have been encountered and resolved in the past. It is a useful tool in dealing with complex and unstructured problems, which are difficult if not impossible to be theoretically modeled. This paper presents a case-based reasoning bidding system that helps contractors with the dynamic information varying with the specific features of the job and the new situation. In this system, bid cases are represented by sets of attributes derived from a preliminary survey of several experienced bidders, focusing, respectively, on two reasoning subgoals: (1) Risk; and (2) competition. Through the system, similar cases can be retrieved to assess the possible level of competition and risk margin. A hypothetical example is explained and evaluated to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. The effectiveness of this system is tested by a Monte Carlo simulation in comparison to the conventional statistical method.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | intuition, effectiveness, bidder, Monte Carlo simulation, statistical method, artificial intelligence, competition, reasoning, decision-making, bidding, case-based reasoning, survey |
| Subjects: | bidding, cognitive psychology, market analysis, decision analysis, data collection methods, modelling and simulation, performance management, artificial intelligence, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Procurement, Digital Applications, Risk Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here