Knight, K and Fayek, A R (2002) Use of fuzzy logic for predicting design cost overruns on building projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 128(6), pp. 503-512. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This paper describes a model for use in predicting potential cost overruns on engineering design projects. The output of the model is useful in assessing the amount of possible risk on a project and the likelihood of making a profit on the job. The model is intended for use by engineering consultants, i.e., structural, mechanical, and electrical engineers, in the building design industry. This research uses fuzzy logic to model the relationships between the characteristics of a project and the potential risk events that may occur, and the associated cost overruns caused by combinations of the project characteristics and risk events. This paper discusses the topic of scope creep and scope definition, which are significant causes of cost overruns on design projects; identifies the project characteristics and risk events used in the model; explains the structure of the model and the use of fuzzy logic; and provides recommendations for future research.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; cost control; decision making; fuzzy sets; project management |
| Index terms: | engineering design, fuzzy set, design cost, decision-making, overrun, scope creep, building design, cost control, project management, profit, fuzzy logic, engineering consultant, electrical engineer, cost overrun |
| Subjects: | decision-making and optimization, project management theory and practice, economics, data science, profession, design process, financial and cost management, economic analysis, decision analysis, architectural design, project controls, scope management, professional |
| Topics: | Time Control, Project Management, Cost Management, Roles and Professions, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Research Practice, Risk Management, Business Strategy |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here