Barraza, G A; Back, W E and Mata, F (2004) Probabilistic forecasting of project performance using stochastic S curves. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(1), pp. 25-32. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This study presents a new methodology for evaluating at-completion project performance status. This new procedure uses the concept of stochastic S curves (SS curves) to determine forecasted project estimates as an alternative to using deterministic S curves and traditional forecasting methods. A simulation approach is used for generating the stochastic S curves, and it is based on the defined variability in duration and cost of the individual activities within the process. Stochastic S curves provide probability distributions for the budget and time values required to complete the project at every selected point of intermediate completion. Final project performance is determined by comparing the planned budget and project duration, with the expected forecasted final cost and elapsed time, respectively. The SS-curve methodology permits objective evaluation of project performance without the limitations inherent in a deterministic approach. The probabilistic characteristics of this approach enable users to more accurately determine at-completion cost and duration variations and evaluate the performance improvement of proposed corrective actions.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost control; forecasting; Monte Carlo method; performance evaluation; project management; scheduling; simulation |
| Index terms: | performance improvement, s-curve, project performance, duration, estimate, project management, variability, forecasting, probability distribution, cost control, methodology, variation, performance evaluation, scheduling |
| Subjects: | project controls, statistical analysis, performance measurement, economics, research methods, contractual condition, project management theory and practice, operations research, prediction and forecasting, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Contract Administration, Time Control, Quality Management, Project Management, Research Practice, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here