Koksal, A and Arditi, D (2004) Predicting construction company decline. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(6), pp. 799-807. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to develop a model that construction company executives can use to determine whether their company is healthy, whether decline is setting in, or whether decline has reached an advanced stage. The construction company decline model is a statistical model that was developed by making use of nonfinancial data collected from construction companies that have filed bankruptcy under Chapter 11 and construction companies that have been functioning without bankruptcy protection. The company profile survey provided information about 21 organizational, human capital, and strategic posture characteristics of construction companies. Factor analysis was used to reduce the number of variables. The factors obtained by performing factor analysis were regressed against decline ratings using multinomial logistic regression. The model allows a user to determine the condition of a company relative to decline. The model was validated by testing it using randomly selected data from the sample. The paper is of relevance to researchers because it contributes to the rather slim body of research in this area. It is of relevance to practitioners too as it provides them with an early warning tool that allows them to conduct a timely turnaround in case their company is in decline.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | bankruptcy; business administration; organization theory; predictions |
| Index terms: | survey, construction company, early warning, multinomial, practitioner, logistic regression, human capital, testing, business administration, bankruptcy, statistical model, executive, factor analysis |
| Subjects: | organization, business, data collection methods, practitioner, economic analysis, data science, professional practice, economics, financial risk, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Organizational Design, Roles and Professions, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here