Molenaar, K R (2005) Programmatic cost risk analysis for highway megaprojects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(3), pp. 343-353. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Highway megaprojects (construction projects over $100 million) are fraught with uncertainty. These projects have historically experienced increases in project costs from the time that a project is first proposed or programmed until the time that they are completed. Persistent cost underestimation reflects poorly on the industry in general but more specifically on engineers. Traditional methods take a deterministic, conservative approach to project cost estimating and then add a contingency factor that varies depending on the stage of project definition, experience, and other factors. This approach falls short, and no industry standard stochastic estimating practice is currently available. This paper presents a methodology developed by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) for its Cost Estimating Validation Process. Nine case studies, with a mean cumulative value of over $22 billion, are presented and analyzed. Programmatic risks are summarized as economic, environmental, third party, right-of-way, program management, geotechnical, design process, construction, and other minor risks. WSDOT is successfully using the range cost output from this procedure to convey project costs to management and the public.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost estimates; highway construction; risk analysis; risk management; scheduling; transportation planning; uncertainty analysis |
| Index terms: | cost estimating, design process, scheduling, transportation planning, project cost, validation, construction project, program, methodology, megaproject, estimating, risk analysis, uncertainty analysis, case study, falls, engineer, risk management, highway construction, cost estimate |
| Subjects: | financial and cost management, strategic project management, operations research, design methods, data collection methods, risk assessment, profession, transportation engineering, environmental hazards, professional development, production management, software systems, research methods, economics, civil engineering, health risk and incident analysis |
| Topics: | Time Control, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Risk Management, Roles and Professions, Sustainability, Health and Safety, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Information Management, Research Practice, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTE |
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