Schexnayder, C; Knutson, K and Fente, J (2005) Describing a beta probability distribution function for construction simulation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(2), pp. 221-229. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
A typical proposed application for a construction simulation model is to assess the productivity of a future operation. This type of application inherently presents the modeler with a situation where there is only a limited amount of data available for choosing an underlying probability distribution function (PDF). This paper presents a formulation for developing a Beta PDF for use in construction simulation modeling. The hypothesis of this paper is that there is a ratio that relates the 75th percentile to the mode of the activity duration. The research demonstrates that using such ratios, along with the minimum, mode, and maximum activity durations, results in estimates of a beta PDF that accurately describes the underlying duration distribution of construction activities. In the methodology proposed here the minimum and maximum activity durations are predicted using deterministic methods based on the physical characteristics of the job and equipment employed. The beta-shaped parameters a and b are estimated using a procedure for fitting beta distributions to activity times when sample data are not available.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; probability density functions; productivity; simulation models |
| Index terms: | modelling, estimate, duration, density, construction activity, productivity, probability distribution, methodology, physical characteristic, construction simulation |
| Subjects: | material properties and characteristics, management, research methods, statistical analysis, project controls, construction operations, analytical methods, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation |
| Topics: | Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Construction Materials, Digital Applications, Urban Studies, Time Control, Site Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here