Wilmot, C G and Mei, B (2005) Neural network modeling of highway construction costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(7), pp. 765-771. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The objective of this research was to develop a procedure that estimates the escalation of highway construction costs over time. An artificial neural network model was developed which relates overall highway construction costs, described in terms of a highway construction cost index, to the cost of construction material, labor, and equipment, the characteristics of the contract and the contracting environment prevailing at the time the contract was let. Results demonstrate that the model is able to replicate past highway construction cost trends in Louisiana with reasonable accuracy. Future construction input costs are estimated from commercially available forecasts of indicator variables closely associated with the price of construction labor, construction equipment, and a representative set of highway construction materials. Future contract characteristics and the contracting environment that is likely to exist in the future are estimated from past trends or stipulated to be consistent with policy decisions in the future. The predictions produced by the model estimate that highway construction costs in Louisiana will double between 1998 and 2015.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | bids; construction costs; cost estimates; forecasting; highway construction; neural networks; predictions |
| Index terms: | construction equipment, forecasting, cost index, construction cost, highway construction, construction material, construction labour, cost estimate, modelling, estimate, accuracy, artificial neural network, neural network |
| Subjects: | professional development, construction equipment, management, civil engineering, artificial intelligence, analytical methods, financial and cost management, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, building materials, modelling and simulation |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Site Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Plant and Equipment |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here