Zheng, D X M and Ng, S T (2005) Stochastic time-cost optimization model incorporating fuzzy sets theory and nonreplaceable front. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(2), pp. 176-186. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
In a real construction project, the duration and cost of each activity could change dynamically as a result of many uncertain variables, such as weather, resource availability, productivity, etc. Managers/planners must take these uncertainties into account and provide an optimal balance of time and cost based on their own experience and knowledge. In this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the managers' behavior in predicting time and cost pertinent to a specific option within an activity. Genetic algorithms are used as a searching mechanism to establish the optimal time-cost profiles under different risk levels. In addition, the nonreplaceable front concept is proposed to assist managers in recognizing promising solutions from numerous candidates on the Pareto front. Economic analysis skills, such as the utility theory and opportunity cost, are integrated into the new model to mimic the decision making process of human experts. A simple case study is used for testing the new model developed. In comparison with the previous models, the new model provides managers with greater flexibility to analyze their decisions in a more realistic manner. The results also indicate that greater robustness may be achieved by taking some risks. This research is relevant to both industry practitioners and researchers. By incorporating the concept of fuzzy sets, managers can represent the range of possible time-cost values as well as their associated degree of belief. The model presented in this paper can, therefore, support decision makers in analyzing their time-cost optimization decision in a more flexible and realistic manner. Many novel ideas have also been incorporated in this paper to benefit the research community. Examples of these include the use of fuzzy sets theory, nonreplaceable front concept, utility theory, opportunity cost, etc. With suitable modifications, these concepts can be applied to model to other similar optimization problems in construction.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | algorithms; cost control; fuzzy sets; productivity; project management; risk management; stochastic processes; time factors |
| Index terms: | fuzzy set, productivity, decision-making process, case study, project management, option, duration, testing, planner, risk management, utility theory, genetic algorithm, cost optimization, manager, weather, economic analysis, practitioner, construction project, cost control |
| Subjects: | design analysis, financial and cost management, professional practice, air quality, profession, risk assessment, data collection methods, practitioner, decision analysis, project controls, economic theory, decision-making and optimization, economics, algorithms, management, project management theory and practice, production management |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Design Practice, Time Control, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Roles and Professions, Risk Management, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here