Li, J; Moselhi, O and Alkass, S (2006) Forecasting project status by using fuzzy logic. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(11), pp. 1193-1202. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This paper describes a forecasting method for predicting potential cost overruns and schedule delays on construction projects. The output of the forecasting method is useful in evaluating the project status at different time horizons and in quantifying the impact of the performance indicators on the profitability of the job. The method is intended for use by members of project teams in performing integrated time and cost control of construction projects. The paper addresses the effects of a number of factors, referred to in the developed method as indicators, on project cost overruns and schedule delays using fuzzy logic. The proposed forecasting method has been implemented in a prototype that operates in the World Wide Web environment. It has an open architecture that allows users to actively interact and, accordingly, makes use of their own experience and knowledge in the forecasting process. An example project is analyzed to test the developed prototype, demonstrate the use of the proposed method, and to illustrate its capabilities.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | costs; forecasting; fuzzy sets; project management |
| Index terms: | fuzzy logic, overrun, fuzzy set, schedule delay, project management, project team, performance indicator, project cost, world-wide web, profitability, cost control, prototype, cost overrun, forecasting, construction project |
| Subjects: | prediction and forecasting, economic analysis, performance management, modelling and simulation, project delivery, production management, decision-making and optimization, financial and cost management, project management theory and practice, networking, data science, project controls, economics |
| Topics: | Project Management, Quality Management, Business Strategy, Time Control, Cost Management, Research Practice, Digital Applications, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here