Han, S H; Kim, D Y and Kim, H (2007) Predicting profit performance for selecting candidate international construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(6), pp. 425-436. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
International projects are inherently exposed to unpredictable and complicated risk scenarios. To minimize possible losses due to these risk exposures, construction firms have their own procedures or basic tools for selecting potential projects, but they are usually based on the experience and knowledge of the firm's engineers and decision makers that are often very subjective and lack scientific basis. This paper presents a quantitative profit prediction model for the early stage of an international project as a systematic risk-screening tool that involves the processes of defining, analyzing, and evaluating various profit-influencing risk variables. Various successful and unsuccessful international project cases with respect to profit levels are collected. Then, a scale-based profit prediction model to select candidate overseas projects is developed through factor analysis and a multiple regression analysis. Finally, this paper provides implications for global project management and lessons learned from case studies to improve profitability for international projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | forecasting; foreign projects; profits; regression analysis; risk management |
| Index terms: | construction firm, profit, prediction model, international construction project, lessons learned, multiple regression analysis, exposure, international project, case study, forecasting, screening, engineer, profitability, risk management, factor analysis, project management, regression analysis |
| Subjects: | professional development, project management theory and practice, management, public and environmental health, statistical analysis, data collection methods, risk assessment, profession, strategic management, organization, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Roles and Professions, Information Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Health and Safety, Business Strategy, International Construction, Human Resources |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here