Moussa, M; Ruwanpura, J and Jergeas, G (2007) CTAN for risk assessments using multilevel stochastic networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(1), pp. 96-101. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Measuring projects' cost and schedule risks in an integrated framework using simulation has several modeling challenges that have yet to be addressed by researchers. This paper presents a multilevel network modeling approach that aims to integrate a combination of different networks in one framework, and presents a computer simulation implementation to the cost and time risk assessment network (CTAN). The CTAN is an integrated network that includes uncertainties in the realization of the schedule logic, in activities durations, in project scope, and in cost. The simulation model is a decision support simulation system (DSSS) that currently consists of three modules: the CTAN, the stochastic decision trees, and the stochastic shortest/longest rout network. The CTAN-DSSS may be used in cost and schedule risk assessment. It completely integrates with other DSSS networks and deals with risks associated with cost, time, and scope at equal importance. The DSSS was verified by conducting several tests and validated by its extensive use for both undergraduate and graduate courses in Civil Engineering at the University of Calgary over the last three years.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | computer analysis; cost control; critical path method; network analysis; project management; quantitative analysis; risk management; stochastic processes |
| Index terms: | network analysis, modelling, implementation, duration, project management, risk assessment, project scope, undergraduate, risk management, decision tree, module, computer simulation, schedule logic, stochastic network, decision support, quantitative analysis, critical path method, cost control, network modelling |
| Subjects: | architectural elements, financial risk, project management theory and practice, project controls, networking, decision analysis, risk assessment, scope management, operations research, modelling and simulation, data analysis and analytics, curriculum development, contractual arrangements, analytical methods, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Procurement, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Project Management, Cost Management, Education, Time Control, Digital Applications, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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