Shaheen, A A; Fayek, A R and Abourizk, S M (2007) Fuzzy numbers in cost range estimating. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(4), pp. 325-334. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Range estimating is a simple form of simulating a project estimate by breaking the project into work packages and approximating the variables in each package using statistical distributions. This paper explores an alternate approach to range estimating that is grounded in fuzzy set theory. The approach addresses two shortcomings of Monte Carlo simulation. The first is related to the analytical difficulty associated with fitting statistical distributions to subjective data, and the second relates to the required number of simulation runs to establish a meaningful estimate of a given parameter at the end of the simulation. For applications in cost estimating, the paper demonstrates that comparable results to Monte Carlo simulation can be achieved using the fuzzy set theory approach. It presents a methodology for extracting fuzzy numbers from experts and processing the information in fuzzy range estimating analysis. It is of relevance to industry and practitioners as it provides an approach to range estimating that more closely resembles the way in which experts express themselves, making it practically easy to apply an approach.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction management; cost estimates; fuzzy sets; Monte Carlo method |
| Index terms: | cost estimate, estimate, package, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy set, methodology, practitioner, estimating, cost estimating |
| Subjects: | decision-making and optimization, research methods, contractual arrangements, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation, practitioner |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Cost Management, Procurement, Roles and Professions |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here