Hwang, S (2009) Dynamic regression models for prediction of construction costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(5), pp. 360-367. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Accurate prediction of construction costs in the market is essential to effectively estimate costs for construction projects. In the construction industry, cost indexes that are reported in series are often used to explain the change of construction costs. By tracking the trend of such quantitative contemporaneous cost index and making frequent and regular forecasts of the future values of the index, one can develop a deeper understanding of prices of resources used for construction. Incorporating such an understanding and prediction into estimating will help practitioners manage construction costs. This paper proposes two dynamic regression models for the prediction of construction cost index. Comparison of the proposed models with the existing methods proves that the new models provide several advantages and improvements.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; forecasting; predictions; regression models |
| Index terms: | construction project, construction cost index, practitioner, estimating, construction industry, estimate, regression model, forecasting, construction cost, cost index |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, industry analysis, production management, cost indicators, prediction and forecasting, economic analysis, financial and cost management, practitioner |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Project Management, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here