Moynihan, G; Zhou, H and Cui, Q (2009) Stochastic modeling for pavement warranty cost estimation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(5), pp. 352-359. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This paper presents a cost estimation model for long-term pavement warranties with multiple distress indicators. One application area for such warranties involves performance-based specifications (PBSs). In contrast to traditional approaches, PBS gives contractors the flexibility to select construction methods, materials, and even design. However, the contractors then must warrant the performance of their work for a specified period of time. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the risks associated with the warranty is a significant cost issue for any contractor to cover potential risks while still being competitive in bidding. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of risk incurred by the warranty has several difficulties. The deterioration of a highway project is a complex process, which is affected by pavement structure, material, traffic load, and weather conditions. Based on a probabilistic risk analysis of failures of performance indicators, the resulting model can estimate the warranty cost at a detailed level. The application of the model has been demonstrated via a numerical case study using long-term pavement performance data.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; pavements; risk management; stochastic models |
| Index terms: | risk analysis, bidding, weather, construction method, deterioration, performance-based specification, performance indicator, cost estimating, modelling, estimate, highway construction, warranty, risk management, construction cost, estimation, distress, case study |
| Subjects: | building construction, environmental hazards, civil engineering, performance management, structural engineering, performance measurement, material degradation and durability, financial and cost management, analytical methods, contractual arrangements, bidding, air quality, risk assessment, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Site Management, Cost Management, Research Practice, Construction Materials, Engineering Principles, Risk Management, Procurement, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCE |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here