Anastasopoulos, P C; Labi, S; Bhargava, A; Bordat, C and Mannering, F L (2010) Frequency of change orders in highway construction using alternate count-data modeling methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(8), pp. 886-893. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
A common problem at state transportation agencies is the inability to complete projects within the original scope of work. Change orders, which are contractual documents issued to accommodate the additional work in a contract, are generally due to root causes such as design errors, unexpected site conditions, and weather conditions, and intermediate causes such as bidding characteristics. At the preaward phase of project management, an improved understanding of the factors that are associated with change orders will be of value and also can serve as a basis for taking steps to reduce concomitant contractual aberrations such as time delay and cost overruns. Recognizing that the occurrence of change orders is a count variable, this paper analyzes the frequency of change orders using a variety of count-modeling methods including the negative binomial, Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. Using 5 years of contract data from Indiana highway projects, appropriate models are estimated to assess the influence of project type, contract type, project duration, and project cost on the frequency of change orders.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | change orders; forecasting; frequency analysis; highway construction; highways and roads; Indiana; statistical models; statistics |
| Index terms: | design error, forecasting, change order, cost overrun, transportation agency, highway construction, time delay, data modelling, project management, statistics, statistical model, duration, modelling, project cost, documents, bidding, weather |
| Subjects: | project management theory and practice, professional development, contractual condition, civil engineering, economics, transportation engineering, project controls, mathematical modelling, air quality, prediction and forecasting, financial and cost management, analytical methods, professional practice, bidding, data science |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Information Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Sustainability, Procurement, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Contract Administration, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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