Bhargava, A; Anastasopoulos, P C; Labi, S; Sinha, K C and Mannering, F L (2010) Three-stage least-squares analysis of time and cost overruns in construction contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(11), pp. 1207-1218. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Construction cost overrun and time overrun (delay) are a significant problem in highway-construction project delivery. Previous research studies have provided insight into the factors that affect overruns; however the findings may have been limited because they do not explicitly consider the simultaneous relationship between cost and time overruns. In this paper, we use data from Indiana highway projects to provide empirical evidence that a simultaneous relationship exists between cost and time overruns and that analysis of these two contractual outputs need to take due cognizance of such simultaneity. Using the three-stage least-squares technique, we identify a number of factors that significantly affect cost overrun and time overrun and we show how the effect of these variables vary by attributes such as project type and results of the bidding process. The models developed in this paper can help agencies enhance the estimation of the expected overruns of final cost and the delay in completion time for their planned projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; construction planning; forecasting; project management; statistical models |
| Index terms: | overrun, bidding, construction project delivery, construction contract, estimation, project management, statistical model, time overrun, construction planning, evidence, highway construction, completion time, agency, construction cost, cost overrun, forecasting |
| Subjects: | bidding, project controls, construction planning, contract type, project management theory and practice, sociology, data science, evaluation and assessment methods, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting, civil engineering |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Cost Management, Procurement, Site Management, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here