Hwang, S and Liu, L Y (2010) Contemporaneous time series and forecasting methodologies for predicting short-term productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(9), pp. 1047-1055. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Productivity has a profound impact on projects that depend on time and cost of construction operations. In addition, time and cost estimates are derived from productivity. Thus, accurate prediction of productivity is essential to effectively plan and control construction operations. Predicting productivity of ongoing operations, however, is challenging. Due to dynamic and stochastic changes in productivity over time during construction, frequent and regular forecasting of short-term productivity is critical in managing ongoing operations. The present research investigated the characteristics of series of periodic productivity that should be taken into consideration to effectively predict short-term productivity continually and proactively. Given the identified characteristics, this study reviewed a few potential statistical methodologies that can make full use of contemporaneous time series data related to production for the purpose of predicting short-term productivity by using trend analysis. The methodologies were demonstrated in this paper using an example case, through which data processing and modeling procedure for modeling contemporaneous series data were explained.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | estimates; forecasting; productivity; short-term prediction; stochastic; time series |
| Index terms: | methodology, data processing, time series, cost estimate, estimate, modelling, forecasting, productivity, construction operation |
| Subjects: | prediction and forecasting, analytical methods, financial and cost management, construction operations, data science, research methods, management |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Site Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here