Hwang, S (2011) Time series models for forecasting construction costs using time series indexes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(9), pp. 656-662. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Construction often involves considerable time gaps between cost estimation and on-site operations. In addition, many operations are performed over a considerable period of time. Accordingly, estimating construction costs must consider the trend of costs in the market, where construction costs normally change over time. Insight into the trend of construction costs in the market, therefore, is beneficial, even critical, to the effective cost management of construction projects. In an effort to support such insight development, two time series models were built by analyzing time series index data and comparing them with existing methods in the present study. The developed time series models accurately predict construction cost indexes. In particular, the models respond sensitively and swiftly to a quick, large change of costs, which allows for accurate forecasting over the short- and long-term periods. Overall, the models are effective for understanding the trend of construction costs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; continual prediction; forecasting models; time series analysis |
| Index terms: | cost estimating, time series, estimating, construction cost index, construction project, cost management, construction cost, time-series analysis, forecasting, site operation |
| Subjects: | operations management, cost indicators, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting, data science, research evaluation and metrics, accounting and finance, production management |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Site Management, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here