Son, J and Rojas, E M (2011) Impact of optimism bias regarding organizational dynamics on project planning and control. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(2), pp. 147-157. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Schedule delays and cost overruns in large-scale construction projects are caused by a variety of reasons including unrealistic expectations at the planning stage. This paper examines, through computer simulation, the phenomenon of optimism bias regarding organizational dynamics as a potential cause for unrealistic expectations on schedules and budgets. A theoretical framework is introduced to examine how optimism bias regarding organizational dynamics can affect the performance of construction processes. A variety of "what-if" scenarios is tested, and based on our results, we claim that managers who maintain an unbiased attitude during project planning tend to outperform those having either an optimistic or a conservative approach. Therefore, we argue that developing an explicit method for analyzing and taking into account organizational dynamics would be a stepping stone toward adding more realism to construction planning and control practice.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | organizations; performance characteristics; planning; simulation; systems engineering |
| Index terms: | realism, optimism bias, construction planning, dynamics, cost overrun, systems engineering, schedule delay, project planning, construction process, construction project, computer simulation, manager |
| Subjects: | systems engineering, building construction, cognitive psychology, project controls, production management, education and knowledge transfer, financial and cost management, construction planning, modelling and simulation, practitioner, control systems |
| Topics: | Site Management, Time Control, Digital Applications, Roles and Professions, Project Management, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here